Is Pezeshkian the Last Hope for Khamenei’s Regime Amid Rising Protests?

With his new cabinet, Pezeshkian has entered a complex political maze, far from the easy days of his candidacy supported by a few reformists. Now, he faces the indifference of old allies and the smiles of new enemies.

The big question is: Can Pezeshkian save Khamenei from a likely downfall, or at least buy him some time? Khamenei only accepted him reluctantly, hoping Pezeshkian could extend the regime’s survival.

But the real issue is: Does Pezeshkian and his team have the strength, power, and determination to tackle the many societal challenges? Can they do anything to delay the expected uprising?

A Closer Look at the Overwhelming Crises

This week, with the introduction of Pezeshkian’s cabinet, protests from various sectors of society have intensified. Over the past week, these protests have been widespread:

Protests in Iran

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1. In August 2024, Iran saw widespread protests across various sectors and regions. Farmers in Isfahan protested water shortages, while factory workers at the Wagon Pars plant in Arak and staff at the Pars Oil and Gas Company in Assaluyeh also demonstrated. Truck drivers in Golpayegan, dismissed workers from the Kahnuj titanium mine, and defrauded investors in Tehran joined the protests. Additionally, there were protests in Soughan over forest destruction in Kerman, and Social Security retirees in Shush and Kermanshah voiced their grievances.
2. On Sunday, August 11, 2024, Social Security retirees held demonstrations in several cities. Workers at Pars Tire Company in Saveh, along with medical staff and nurses in Shiraz and other cities, also took to the streets.
3. On Monday, August 12, 2024, telecommunications retirees protested in cities like Isfahan, Kermanshah, Tabriz, Bijar, Urmia, Ahvaz, Rasht, Sanandaj, Shiraz, and Sari. The same day saw protests by workers at the Wagon Pars plant in Arak, buyers of imported Changan cars, vegetable truck drivers in Karaj, contractors in Rasht, and nurses at three hospitals in Yazd. Literacy movement workers in Tehran and farmers in Isfahan also held demonstrations.
   On Tuesday, August 13, 2024, nurses protested in cities such as Yazd, Arak, and Islamabad-e Gharb (Western Iran), Tafresh (Central Iran), and Kangan (Southern Iran), demanding their rights. Protests also continued by the literacy movement workers, and the dismissed workers from Khuzestan Cement Company (Southwestern Iran) resumed their protests.
   Energy Crisis in Iran
4. Iran is facing severe energy, electricity, and water crises. Despite having the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves and fourth-largest oil reserves, the country is struggling with a massive energy shortage. During these hot summer days, electricity and water shortages are particularly severe, causing many government offices to close due to power outages.
5. This year, Iran faces an 18,000-megawatt electricity shortfall. To address this, the regime would need to build 25 power plants the size of Bushehr’s nuclear plant, which is unrealistic.
6. Despite its vast resources, Iran produces only 4,071 kilowatt-hours of electricity per capita, while Bahrain produces over 24,000, Kuwait produces 21,000, and the UAE produces 17,000 kilowatt-hours per capita. Last week, government offices in 13 provinces had to shut down for several hours due to power outages.
7. Additionally, the Oil Minister admitted that Iran is importing 300 million cubic meters of gas daily from Russia. The regime has signed a 30-year contract with Russia, paying 25 cents per cubic meter of gas, totaling $27 billion annually. This is the reality for a country rich in oil and gas, yet its refineries still waste gas through flaring.
8. In 2022, Oil Minister Javad Owji warned that without a $240 billion investment in the oil and energy sectors over the next eight years, Iran could become a net importer of oil and gas. However, it is clear that the regime neither has this budget nor plans to allocate such funds to the industry.
   
   Rising Inflation and Prices
9. While the regime focuses on political games, the cost of basic necessities has soared. Prices for essential goods, like fruits and meat, have risen by up to 200%. Bread prices have increased by 25% in various provinces. The Deputy Governor for Economic Coordination in South Khorasan stated that bread prices are set to rise by up to 25% in over 10 provinces. The value of the Iranian rial has plummeted, and the stock market has become a scene of capital erosion for ordinary citizens. Official statistics show that capital flight reached a record-breaking $20.193 billion in the first nine months of 2023, adding to the country’s crises of unemployment, industrial struggles, and environmental challenges.
   Budget Deficit
10. Despite U.S. President Biden easing sanctions and providing the regime with $100 billion to $150 billion in oil revenues, the money has been squandered on repression, warmongering, and corruption. As Pezeshkian’s cabinet forms, it is clear that the treasury is empty, with the regime struggling to pay employees’ salaries. Pezeshkian has inherited a government with a staggering 556 trillion-toman budget deficit and is currently unable to pay retirees’ pensions. In 2024, the government will need 450 trillion tomans just to pay pensions. Additionally, resolving the banking sector’s imbalances and preventing bankruptcy requires another 1 trillion tomans. In total, the government needs an astronomical 1.756 quadrillion tomans, far beyond the most optimistic dreams of Pezeshkian and his administration. On top of these challenges, the regime faces ongoing regional conflicts and an internal legitimacy crisis, making the prospect of a new uprising likely.

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What Lies Ahead for the Iranian People?

The truth is, Pezeshkian’s administration, expected to inherit a “well-prepared horse” from Raisi, has instead received a “four-legged donkey” stuck in a crisis.

Neither Pezeshkian nor his team have the courage to claim they can save this troubled situation. All they can do is take the last scraps from the looted table before facing their fate—a fate that will be decided by the uprising of the Iranian people.

An uprising is inevitable for the oppressed and awakened masses, who have no weapon left against this brutal regime but force. Both Khamenei and Pezeshkian know that the next uprising will not be like the protests in 2022. It will aim to end all forms of tyranny and oppression. And that day is not far off.

Iran News