A Russian military victory in Ukraine would cost Europe twice as much as a Ukrainian victory, according to a new study by Corisk and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs published on Nov. 25.
Under the first scenario proposed by the researchers, Moscow’s forces would continue their incremental advance and push westward toward the Dnipro River. As a result of their military victories, the Kremlin would force Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on terms beneficial to Moscow. According to the report, such an outcome would amount to a Russian partial victory, giving the Kremlin influence over Ukraine’s political and economic orientation, including EU and NATO membership. The study further warned that Ukraine could lose half its territory, face long-term political destabilization, and risk democratic backsliding — or even state failure. Millions more Ukrainians — an estimated 6 to 11 million — could flee toward Europe, generating 524-952 billion euros ($606 billion – 1.1 trillion) in refugee-related expenses over four years.
Additional defense spending to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank would raise Europe’s total costs under Scenario 1 to €1.2-€1.6 trillion ($1.4-1.8 trillion). Following a negotiated settlement to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia could then redirect military resources toward Moldova, the Baltic states, or the Nordic region, the report said. European governments would need to rapidly build up its defenses and deterrence in the Baltics and Arctic, while simultaneously dealing with rising political strain from migration and domestic polarization.
Under a second scenario — or a Ukrainian victory — the cost associated would be significantly less for Europe, the researchers found. With the right level of support, Ukraine could rebuild superior combat power — similar to its successful 2022 counter offensives — and begin retaking occupied territory. In this scenario, Ukraine’s battlefield momentum would force Russia into peace talks that safeguard Kyiv’s vital interests. To facilitate victory, Ukraine would require a rapid influx of military equipment. This would include “1,500-2,500 battle tanks and 2,000-3,000 artillery systems over one or two years… Ukraine will also need up to 8 million drones of all types, air defense, and strategic missile systems.”
If these capabilities are delivered, the report argued, Ukraine could stop Russian advances, reclaim strategically important areas, and restore conditions for political normalization and economic recovery. A Ukrainian partial victory would also accelerate EU integration, encourage refugee returns, and reduce country-risk premiums for investors. Europe’s estimated cost for enabling such an outcome — including military aid, industrial support, and reduced refugee burdens — totals 522–838 billion euros ($605-$972 billion) over four years, roughly half the cost of a Russian victory. Confiscation of frozen Russian assets could further reduce European expenses by up to 50 percent.
Kyiv Institute
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