Republicans’ best shot at keeping the House in 2026 could rest with a crucial Voting Rights Act case before the Supreme Court — and it’s putting some senior Democratic leaders in the hot seat.
By some estimates, the GOP could pick up nine or more congressional seats if the high court strikes down race-based districts.
That looks likely — a majority of the conservative justices indicated they oppose the Civil Rights era restriction during oral arguments two months ago.
“It’s potentially really important for 2026,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told The Post.
At issue is Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which bans any law or map that results in the denial of the right to vote on account of race or color.
In practice, the law has been used to create majority-minority congressional districts that favor Democrats — especially in Republican majority states with large black populations.
“If it comes and it completely changes our understanding of Section 2 and doesn’t protect these districts anymore, you could have a significant impact,” Kondik explained.
“You could see several states in the South potentially eliminating Democratic districts in states like Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee.”
Since 1938, the party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two elections. Given the GOP’s ultra-slim majority, that could mean they will lose power.
The Supreme Court’s decision could completely upend that dynamic.
One analysis by the New York Times’ Nate Cohn found that if the Supreme Court entirely eliminates the Voting Rights Act race-based districts, Republicans could cut the 24 seats that Democrats hold in the South in half.
That includes nine pickups directly tied to Section 2’s demise.