This chart shows manufacturing production growth (6-month average vs. a year ago). After spending most of 2022–2024 in contraction, output has surged since mid-2025 and is now approaching +2% — the strongest growth since the post-COVID rebound.

So why isn’t anyone talking about it?

Partly because it’s invisible in the jobs data. Manufacturing payrolls have been declining. If you only look at employment, you’d think the sector is still struggling.

But flat jobs + rising output = productivity growth. The sector is producing significantly more with fewer workers.

This is one more piece of evidence that the productivity acceleration story is real and broadening beyond tech. The gains are showing up in hard, measurable output, but not in headcount.

Source: Federal Reserve Board