Global oil supply in 2025 is shaped by a tug-of-war between OPEC+ restraint and vigorous non-OPEC growth. Based on reputable outlooks (EIA, IEA, OPEC) as compiled by Trading Economics, output continues to edge higher versus 2024. Below is a clear, country-by-country look at the leaders and what is driving their barrels this year. Figures refer to crude oil production only (excluding condensates, NGLs and other liquids).

---

In 2025, worldwide crude production is hovering around the mid-104 to 105 million b/d range, up roughly 1.6–1.9 million b/d year over year. The bulk of new supply is coming from non-OPEC+—especially the United States, Brazil, Canada and Guyana—while OPEC+ extends voluntary cuts that curb growth from key members. Macro headwinds include softer price expectations (Brent trading in a roughly $58–$70/bbl band in several forecasts), uneven demand growth, and ongoing geopolitics from sanctions to regional conflicts. Project ramp-ups in deepwater (Brazil), shale (U.S.), and oil sands (Canada) underpin the expansion. Meanwhile, several producers face infrastructure, investment, or above-ground risks that will continue to shape their 2025 trajectories.

Top 10 countries by 2025 production

1.  United States — 13,642 kb/d

The United States remains the world’s largest oil producer in 2025 with an average of about 13.6 million b/d (13,642 kb/d). Growth is led by the Permian Basin, where productivity and infrastructure expansions keep setting new benchmarks. Pipeline debottlenecking and disciplined efficiency gains support high sustained output despite price volatility. U.S. shale remains the swing engine of non-OPEC+ supply growth this year. Service costs and decline rates are watched closely, but momentum remains firmly positive.

2.  Russia — 9,818 kb/d

Russia maintains substantial output near 9.8 million b/d (9,818 kb/d) despite sanctions and the OPEC+ framework. Redirected crude flows and discounted barrels have sustained production levels into alternative markets. The policy path within OPEC+ and the durability of export logistics remain key variables for 2025. Investment and technology access are ongoing constraints, yet operational resilience has been notable. Market watchers track compliance and export routing for signals on the year’s balance.

3.  Saudi Arabia — 9,722 kb/d

Saudi Arabia averages roughly 9.7 million b/d (9,722 kb/d) as extended OPEC+ cuts temper its near-term volumes. With spare capacity around 12 million b/d, the Kingdom retains unmatched ability to adjust supply if policy shifts. 2025 strategy prioritizes market stability over maximizing barrels. Domestic upstream capability and megaproject readiness keep optionality strong. Price signals and OPEC+ cohesion will guide any change in Saudi output cadence.

4.  Canada — 4,420 kb/d

Canada’s production advances to about 4.42 million b/d (4,420 kb/d), up roughly 0.3 million b/d year over year. Oil sands expansions and incremental optimization are the main drivers. New takeaway capacity improves netbacks and supports higher sustained runs. Environmental policy and ESG standards remain core to project pacing and capital allocation. Overall, 2025 marks another year of steady, infrastructure-enabled growth.

5.  China — 4,350 kb/d

China’s domestic crude output holds near 4.35 million b/d (4,350 kb/d), reflecting steady redevelopment of mature basins. Enhanced recovery and targeted investment cushion declines. While China remains a major crude importer, stable local production is strategically important. Policy support and national oil company plans aim to sustain plateau levels. 2025 thus looks broadly flat with limited upside risk.

6.  Iraq — 3,742 kb/d

Iraq averages around 3.74 million b/d (3,742 kb/d) under the OPEC+ umbrella. Field performance at super-giant reservoirs remains robust, though export coordination and policy factors shape realized flows. Infrastructure reliability at southern terminals is a perennial watchpoint. Investment timelines and contractor activity influence incremental growth. For 2025, volumes are largely policy-constrained rather than geology-limited.

7.  Brazil — 3,679 kb/d

Brazil climbs to roughly 3.68 million b/d (3,679 kb/d) as pre-salt projects add barrels. Deepwater ramp-ups deliver some of the strongest non-OPEC+ gains in 2025. High productivity wells and reliable FPSO deployments underpin continued momentum. Logistics and maintenance schedules are the main swing factors for monthly prints. Overall, Brazil is a cornerstone of global supply growth this year.

8.  United Arab Emirates — 3,240 kb/d

The UAE posts about 3.24 million b/d (3,240 kb/d) while remaining aligned with OPEC+ objectives. ADNOC’s capacity expansion program preserves medium-term upside once policy settings allow. 2025 strategy balances market stewardship with investment in spare capacity. Efficiency and low upstream carbon intensity strengthen its competitive position. Any relaxation of cuts could surface meaningful incremental barrels.

9.  Iran — 3,218 kb/d

Iran’s output is estimated near 3.22 million b/d (3,218 kb/d), higher than in prior years despite sanctions. Alternative trade channels and domestic offtake support sustained production. Policy dynamics and enforcement intensity remain the key uncertainties. Reservoir management and maintenance have stabilized declines at legacy fields. In 2025, Iran is a notable swing factor for balances and differentials.

10.  Kuwait — 2,489 kb/d

Kuwait averages roughly 2.49 million b/d (2,489 kb/d) within the OPEC+ framework. Mature field management and steady brownfield work sustain core volumes. Neutral Zone developments offer medium-term potential depending on project cadence. Investment discipline and reliability remain hallmarks of its upstream. For 2025, policy rather than geology is the chief limiter.