Russia is stuck on the Ukrainian battlefield and lashing out with massive strikes on Kyiv. The growing fear in European capitals is that President Vladimir Putin will try next to reshuffle the cards by expanding the conflict to Europe.

In recent weeks, Russia has made increasingly bellicose statements against the Baltic states. It has threatened to bomb “decision-making centers” in Latvia after accusing the country of hosting Ukrainian drone operators, an allegation denied by the Latvian authorities. Air-raid alarms were sounded in Lithuania last week, forcing the government into a bunker, after suspected Russian drones approached its airspace from Belarus.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has also published the addresses of companies allegedly working on drone production with Ukraine in eight European nations, warning of “unpredictable consequences” and “sharp escalation” if military assistance to Kyiv doesn’t cease.

While fears that Russia could expand the conflict to Europe aren’t new, recent developments have made them more urgent. Several European national-security officials have warned that Russia could try to test the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization by targeting one of the Baltic nations, Swedish and Danish islands in the Baltic Sea or alliance territory in the Arctic.

“The security environment in Europe has deteriorated during the last 24 months, and we see a greater inclination from the Russian side to take greater operational risks in their hybrid operations, moving up also to kinetic elements,” Sweden’s Defense Minister Pål Jonson said in an interview. “We are cognizant that we need to be focused on strengthening our ability to deter and defend against the Russians.”

The Wall Street Journal