Europeans are divided over whether the EU should move closer to the United States or to China, according to new polling shared exclusively with POLITICO that highlights how Donald Trump’s second presidency has upended long-standing geopolitical loyalties.

In a survey conducted in June by pollster Public First across 24 EU countries, respondents in eight countries leaned toward stronger relations with China, nine favored the U.S. and seven were effectively split between the two.

In 14 countries, the single most common response was “I don’t know” — with more people giving that answer than backing either Washington or Beijing.

The responses underscore the difficult situation facing the bloc, as political and trade tensions strain relations with the two global superpowers — its two largest trading partners.

Brussels is implementing a one-sided trade deal with the Trump administration, while it faces progressive deindustrialization driven by a surge of Chinese exports including electric vehicles.

“Europeans see distance from America as achievable and, in some countries, already the majority preference. They see reliance on China as more of a necessity, and efforts to mitigate it as wishful thinking,” said Seb Wride, head of opinion research at Public First.

“It would be poor timing for Trump’s actions to set up a choice between the U.S. and China — for many Europeans the U.S. is optional, and China essential,” he added.

What the data makes clear is that in Western Europe, the U.S. is no longer seen as a reliable ally.

Italy and Spain, for example, are in the China camp, the latter solidly so. Other heavy hitters France and Germany were uncertain, with a majority answering that they didn’t know who to choose between the two. 

Donald Trump has made his disdain of Europe’s leadership a recurring theme of his presidency. He’s insulted them, imposed unilateral tariffs on the bloc, withdrawn U.S. troops from the continent, and even threatened to annex Greenland, a Danish sovereign territory. 

Several EU leaders — from Spain’s Pedro Sánchez to Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen — have seen their popularity rise after confronting the U.S. president, underscoring how unpopular he is abroad. Even traditional allies, like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, are moving away from him. 

The trend isn’t continent-wide: Respondents in Eastern Europe, which has long clung to the U.S. as a guarantor of the post-Cold War order, continue to see America favorably. Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, for example, are all solidly in Washington’s camp.

Beijing doesn’t offer a straightforward alternative to the historical U.S. relationship.

Roaring Chinese imports are undermining traditional European manufacturing, from chemicals to carmaking. Earlier this week, the European Commission said that it was in talks with China to try and find a more balanced trade arrangement; it wants progress on the issue by October.

The polling data suggests that EU citizens view Europe’s trade ties with China as a matter of fact, rather than choice.

Across the 24 countries in the survey, 38 percent of respondents said that, while reducing reliance on China sounded good, it was an unrealistic idea. That was the most common view in all countries except Sweden and Denmark, where similar shares thought the bloc should try to reverse the EU’s dependence on China.

Across the bloc, just 26 percent agreed that it would be both doable and desirable to do so; while another 19 percent said the bloc shouldn’t be trying to cut its reliance on China anyway.

What’s more — Europeans see China, and not the U.S., as the future. In the poll, 43 percent of respondents said they expected China to be Europe’s most important trading partner in 10 years. Just 27 percent picked the U.S.

By country, more people in 23 of the 24 countries covered said they expect China to be Europe’s top trade partner in a decade’s time. Only Lithuanians clearly favored the U.S.