FWIW, based on a few years worth of studying voter registration and other data—which led me to be dead on in 2024 six months out with “Trump 312 EVs with 1.5% of the pop vote) and in 2016, before the election, with “Trump will win with between 300 and 320 EVs” (final 304), and yes, I missed in 2018 on the House—here goes: *Rs hold the senate at 52. Possible ceiling of 54. Paxton, Collins, AK seat, OH all holds. I think Rodgers wins in MI, Whatley loses NC. My long-shots are Sununu with NH and Tafoya in MN. Either could come through, but not a prediction, but . . . if either of those to come through, then I think the other Collins in GA will win. *House R 220. This is a little soft on 2-3 seats, but I did not include Miller in OH7, who is running a heckuva race despite no money due to his, er, issues. Still, the fact that he hung in and that his opponent has similar problems, may give us that seat. Currently Marcy Kaptur’s seat is in trouble, but I’m not calling that one yet either. I think Feely holds AZ1, tossup on Ciscomani in CD6, but the numbers look good. I think we hold IA1, flip ME2 and hold 1 of the VA seats.

Right now, based on Seth Keshel’s amazing district-by-district analysis, I have us at 212 or 213, Ds at about 211 or 212. There are truly only about 10-12 competitive “swing” seats, including 2 in PA which we should split.

House will be very close either way. No one is going to win by 20 seats. If Ds win, could be 218-217, then, gee, what if Illicit Mullah Omar is arrested and stripped of citizenship? Would that be fun? a 217 tie for several months?

I think GA will elect the R gov; Texas will return Abbott by 10; and AZ will have a nailbiter. I think enough Rs have turned out to give Biggs the win, but it will be close and they do cheat.

So far we are seeing HEAVY R turnout. Rs are ahead of their 2022/2024 positions in TX, FL, AZ, NV, and from what we get in reports, OH.

Understand that Ds made a deliberate strategy of voting early, and every single state is showing them tailing off now badly. I think IA will flip R heavy any day.

So why are the polls so far off? Two decent pollsters in 2024, and I won’t name them but you know who they are, absolutely went nuts on the Iran thing and have abandoned all objectivity. But for all the others—not counting the FOUR who outed themselves as mere propaganda organs—I don’t think ANY accounted for the nearly FIVE MILLION DROP in D voters since 2024: *Over 1m illegal “voters” (out of a total of 2.5m, so it could be higher) are gone from D voting rolls *Over 2-5 (hard to get a read on the top number here as Judicial Watch doesn’t respond) voter roll purges of DemoKKKrats. Well, they purged dead voters (DemoKKKrats) and “missing” voters who moved or were fantasy (DemoKKKrats). So let’s go with the lowest # I’ve been able to validate, 2m off the D’s voter rolls *The D-R registration flips of over 1.5m since November 2024.

That’s minimumum 4.5m, max of about 6.5m D “voters” who have simply vanished—but the polls aren’t factoring that in, hence the D+10, D+13 polls again.

I.S.