Even before the polls closed on Tuesday, an epic blame game had begun. How did Republicans fumble the success of 2024 into this midterm meltdown? How did we lose so many Senate seats, including in my home state of Texas, a conservative cornerstone for more than three decades and a state Donald Trump carried by 14 points in 2024?

Die-hard Never Trumpers will rush to eulogize the MAGA movement. Some populists will shop a stab-in-the-back narrative that blames the traditional conservatives they themselves chased away. But both sides miss the point. This week’s beat-down wasn’t only foreseeable, it was foreseen—because our party forgot four basic rules of coalition politics.

First, successful coalitions add, they don’t subtract. In 2024, a unified Republican Party dominated among the white working class, won Hispanic men outright and won the largest share of black voters since the 1970s. Lifelong conservatives and first-time Republican voters all embraced our message of lower prices, border security, cultural sanity and American strength. This year, losing candidates like Ken Paxton and Mike Collins shrank the tent, obsessing over “RINOs” and political theater. In Texas, statewide candidate Bo French poisoned the well even further with blatant bigotry against Indian-Americans, anathema to the party of Lincoln and Reagan. When nominees show contempt for voters and request a smaller Republican Party, voters oblige them.

The second forgotten lesson was even simpler: Be likeable. We are no longer in 2010, when articulate, appealing conservatives like Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey challenged “establishment” candidates over real policy differences. Today, it is fringe challengers who play down voting records and policy in favor of performative politics. A strange reverse personality test has taken root. If a candidate talks like an affable, reasonable person, he must be a sellout.

John Cornyn, Wall Street Journal